Geographical conflict + macro data double critical hit! Old Leek teaches you how to trade in stormy seas without overturning

Brothers, the market has been really awesome recently. The geopolitical news is like setting off firecrackers, and the macro data is queuing up to test the heart. For those who play with contracts and make transactions, this market situation is both an opportunity to make money and a trap for liquidation. Today we won’t deal with the fictitious stuff, but let’s talk about the real stuff: how to survive in this crazy market and reduce transaction costs at the same time.

1. What’s going on in the market today? Quick Facts!

Geopolitics & Energy Market: Two things are happening again

Another bombing in the Middle East: The US Embassy in Iraq was attacked, and the air defense system was directly scrapped. As soon as this news came out, the crude oil market immediately became nervous, fearing supply problems.
Operating crude oil market:

There was a ruthless person who used a new address and only opened 1x leverage to do long crude oil, and his floating profit reached 1.18 million US dollars in 3 days! What does this mean? The trend is right, low leverage can still eat meat.
The U.S. Department of Energy could no longer sit still and launched an emergency exchange of strategic petroleum reserves and purchased 86 million barrels of crude oil in an apparent effort to stabilize supply.
Barclays Bank is more direct. It directly adjusts its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to US$85/barrel due to concerns about incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.

Large institutions secretly bargained: Grayscale pledged 57,600 ETH in one go through Coinbase, worth almost US$121.6 million. The actions of these big guys often imply that they are not so pessimistic about the market outlook.

There are a lot of other bad things too.

Fighting is still going on in Ukraine and Lebanon, and there are reports of casualties.
The Prime Minister of South Korea talked to Trump about the dialogue between North Korea and the United States, and the geopolitical game has not stopped.
The market's eyes are also focused on personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and various U.S. economic policies.

Blood and Tears Reminder to Brothers: Geopolitical news comes faster than lightning, and the market is prone to inserting needles at every turn. For those who play contracts, please control your positions and set your stop loss well. Don't let a piece of news destroy your account. Smart money ambush logical products in advance (such as crude oil that is affected by supply) instead of running after the news. That is called taking over.

2. What will happen next? Keep an eye on the financial calendar!

The data below are all ruthless players that can overturn the market, especially the indicators tied to US stocks, the US dollar, and cryptocurrencies. Don’t blink.

| Time (event) | Published value | Forecast value | Previous value | Potential impact on market | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | US core PCE price index annual rate (January) | To be announced | -- | -- | **⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ The Fed's pet peeve, the king of inflation indicators, directly determines interest rate cut expectations. ** | | US PCE price index monthly/annual rate (January) | To be announced | -- | -- | **⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Comprehensive inflation data, the US dollar, gold, and US stocks all have to look at it. ** | | US JOLTS job vacancies (January) | To be announced | -- | -- | ⭐️⭐️⭐️ Whether the labor market is hot or not, and whether the Fed's policy is tight or not, it has the final say. | | Canadian CPI annual rate/month rate (February) | To be announced | -- | -- | ⭐️⭐️ It affects the Canadian dollar and North American market sentiment, take a look. | | U.S. Durable Goods Orders Monthly Rate (January) | To be announced | -- | -- | ⭐️⭐️ A thermometer for U.S. manufacturing and economic activity. |

Interpretation of Old Leeks:

PCE data is king: If the inflation data is more stubborn than expected, the market will feel that "the Federal Reserve has to wait to cut interest rates." If the US dollar strengthens, risk assets such as Bitcoin and US stocks will definitely be under pressure in the short term. On the other hand, if inflation softens, risk assets may immediately jump up.
How to play: Before data is released, the market is usually dead (waiting for direction). If you are a die-hard, you can gamble with a small position based on the technical aspects, but a more stable approach is to wait until the data is released, the first wave of violent market reaction has passed, and the direction is clear before entering the market**. Remember, you can see tomorrow's sun only if you are alive, don't die before dawn.

3. Trader Chat Room: What’s the future of Bitcoin?

In the trading group, old friends have never stopped arguing about BTC, and their recent views are quite interesting:

Bearish: Some veteran traders feel that the rising structure of Bitcoin may have changed, and now it seems to be in a "bearish flag pattern." If this is the case, the price may hit 60,000 US dollars or even lower in the next few weeks. reason? The adjustment of the weekly level (W1) takes time and cannot be rushed.
Don’t forget the related indicators: Those who are really good at playing will keep their eyes on the US 10-year Treasury Bond Yield (US10Y) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
US10Y soars → Funds may go to buy government bonds → Risky assets like Bitcoin will be uncomfortable.
DXY hardens → Bitcoin denominated in U.S. dollars is generally not a good thing.
What are retail investors doing: Some people point out that during the recent consolidation market, retail investors have been particularly active in trading, which is often a sign that the market is holding back big moves and choosing a direction.

Our true words: You can listen to other people’s opinions, but never take them as imperial edicts. Especially for high-leverage contracts, you have to combine your own risk tolerance, technical analysis and fund management. In this volatile market, the six-character mantra of ** light positions, batches, and stop losses** is more reliable than any orders placed by a great master.

4. Where can I trade safely and save money? A guide to shedding wool!

After talking about so many markets, we finally came to the practical point: Where can we trade safely and with low fees? **

It’s a cliché but it must be shouted: **You must choose the world’s top, licensed and compliant exchange! ** Stay away from those "pheasant places" whose names you have never heard of, otherwise the market will not kill you and the platform will run away and let you reset first.

For most brothers, we first recommend the following platforms. They are not only safe and reliable, but also you can directly get permanent fee discount by registering through our exclusive link. You can save on every transaction, and the little you add up will make more money!

Recommended mainstream exchanges (CEX)

Binance

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OKX

The product line is ridiculously rich, the contract trading experience is excellent, and innovative products emerge in endlessly.
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Bybit

Started in contract trading, the interface is extremely professional and suitable for intermediate and advanced traders.
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Gate.io

The speed of adding new coins is like riding a rocket. It is known as the "Holy Land of Altcoins". If you want to play with new coins, don't miss it.
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Two final words: In the current market, geographic risk and macro data are two big mountains. In trading, watch more and move less, especially when key data is released. When choosing a platform, safety comes first and saving on handling fees is the last word. Use our links to open accounts at these major firms, first support the "newbie's umbrella" - fee discounts, and then slowly hone your skills in the turbulent market!

*Disclaimer: This article is just for sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency and futures trading are extremely risky and can cost you all your money. Keep your head clear and make your own decisions. *