Bitcoin ETF flows return: BTC up 0.47% this week, COIN down 3.1%
Bitcoin ETF Q3 inflows became a hot Square topic.
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Bitcoin ETF flows return: BTC up 0.47% this week, COIN down 3.1%
The most discussed funding headline on the Square this week was Bitcoin ETF net inflows in the third quarter. Over the same window, Binance BTCUSDT perpetual rose 0.47% for the week, COINUSDT fell 3.1%, MSTRUSDT rose 0.16% and HOODUSDT fell 6.16%. The inflow narrative and the actual moves of these four pairs did not line up, and that gap matters more than any single daily candle.
How the four pairs actually traded this week
BTCUSDT opened the week at 84433 USDT on 2026-09-28 and closed at 84829.6 USDT on 2026-10-02, a 0.47% weekly gain. Two days carried the week: 09-28 fell 1.15% from 84433 USDT to 83461 USDT, the deepest drop of the week, while 10-01 rose 1.5% from 83576.8 USDT to 84829.6 USDT and pulled the weekly print back into positive territory. On 10-02 the open and close were both 84829.6 USDT, a 0% move.
| Pair | Date | open | close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTCUSDT | 2026-09-25 | 84370.1 USDT | 84056 USDT | -0.37% |
| BTCUSDT | 2026-09-26 | 84056 USDT | 84403.3 USDT | 0.41% |
| BTCUSDT | 2026-09-27 | 84403.2 USDT | 84432.9 USDT | 0.04% |
| BTCUSDT | 2026-09-28 | 84433 USDT | 83461 USDT | -1.15% |
| BTCUSDT | 2026-09-29 | 83461.1 USDT | 83624.5 USDT | 0.2% |
| BTCUSDT | 2026-09-30 | 83624.5 USDT | 83576.9 USDT | -0.06% |
| BTCUSDT | 2026-10-01 | 83576.8 USDT | 84829.6 USDT | 1.5% |
| BTCUSDT | 2026-10-02 | 84829.6 USDT | 84829.6 USDT | 0% |
| COINUSDT | 2026-09-25 | 198.62 USDT | 195.26 USDT | -1.69% |
| COINUSDT | 2026-09-26 | 195.26 USDT | 197.11 USDT | 0.95% |
| COINUSDT | 2026-09-27 | 197.09 USDT | 195.99 USDT | -0.56% |
| COINUSDT | 2026-09-28 | 196 USDT | 192.8 USDT | -1.63% |
| COINUSDT | 2026-09-29 | 192.81 USDT | 190.46 USDT | -1.22% |
| COINUSDT | 2026-09-30 | 190.47 USDT | 186.7 USDT | -1.98% |
| COINUSDT | 2026-10-01 | 186.69 USDT | 189.99 USDT | 1.77% |
| COINUSDT | 2026-10-02 | 189.98 USDT | 189.93 USDT | -0.03% |
| MSTRUSDT | 2026-09-25 | 161.41 USDT | 159.19 USDT | -1.38% |
| MSTRUSDT | 2026-09-26 | 159.2 USDT | 160.41 USDT | 0.76% |
| MSTRUSDT | 2026-09-27 | 160.41 USDT | 160.93 USDT | 0.32% |
| MSTRUSDT | 2026-09-28 | 160.93 USDT | 157.36 USDT | -2.22% |
| MSTRUSDT | 2026-09-29 | 157.37 USDT | 155.93 USDT | -0.92% |
| MSTRUSDT | 2026-09-30 | 155.93 USDT | 153.44 USDT | -1.6% |
| MSTRUSDT | 2026-10-01 | 153.43 USDT | 161.22 USDT | 5.08% |
| MSTRUSDT | 2026-10-02 | 161.23 USDT | 161.18 USDT | -0.03% |
| HOODUSDT | 2026-09-25 | 120.81 USDT | 119.06 USDT | -1.45% |
| HOODUSDT | 2026-09-26 | 119.06 USDT | 119.1 USDT | 0.03% |
| HOODUSDT | 2026-09-27 | 119.1 USDT | 118.94 USDT | -0.13% |
| HOODUSDT | 2026-09-28 | 118.95 USDT | 116.23 USDT | -2.29% |
| HOODUSDT | 2026-09-29 | 116.23 USDT | 117.56 USDT | 1.14% |
| HOODUSDT | 2026-09-30 | 117.56 USDT | 113.11 USDT | -3.79% |
| HOODUSDT | 2026-10-01 | 113.09 USDT | 111.67 USDT | -1.26% |
| HOODUSDT | 2026-10-02 | 111.65 USDT | 111.62 USDT | -0.03% |
COINUSDT fell 1.98% on 09-30 to close at 186.7 USDT, its lowest close of the week, then rebounded 1.77% on 10-01 to 189.99 USDT but still finished the week down 3.1%. MSTRUSDT ran the other way: it fell 1.6% on 09-30 to 153.44 USDT, then rose 5.08% on 10-01 to 161.22 USDT, leaving the week up 0.16%. HOODUSDT was the weakest, down 3.79% on 09-30 and another 1.26% on 10-01, for a 6.16% weekly loss.
Where this week ranks in the historical sample
BTCUSDT has 200 weekly samples, and 92 weeks were stronger than this one, so the 0.47% gain sits in the weaker half. Among the stronger weeks, 2023-01-09 rose 21.95%, 2023-03-13 rose 27.15%, 2024-02-26 rose 22.05% and 2026-08-17 rose 23.61%.
| Pair | Weekly samples | Weeks stronger than this one | This week |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTCUSDT | 200 | 92 | 0.47% |
| COINUSDT | 34 | 22 | -3.1% |
| MSTRUSDT | 34 | 16 | 0.16% |
| HOODUSDT | 35 | 26 | -6.16% |
COINUSDT has only 34 weekly samples, with 22 stronger than this week's -3.1%. Its stronger weeks include 2026-04-13 at 21.42%, 2026-08-17 at 26.18% and 2026-09-14 at 13.64%. MSTRUSDT has 34 samples with 16 stronger than this week's 0.16%, including 2026-06-29 at 30.27%, 2026-08-17 at 28.64% and 2026-04-13 at 28.39%. HOODUSDT has 35 samples with 26 stronger than this week's -6.16%, including 2026-04-13 at 30.66%, 2026-05-25 at 27.52% and 2026-08-31 at 20.61%. None of the four sits in its own strong zone this week.
What the hot Square posts say about the flows
Hot posts on the Square argue that Bitcoin ETF net inflows in the third quarter show institutional money returning, and that this return shows up in BTC first before reaching crypto-linked US equity pairs such as COIN and MSTR (relayed, not this site's view). Other posts note that fund flows are a quarterly slow variable while perpetual prices are a daily fast variable, so BTC rising only 0.47% while COIN falls 3.1% is not a contradiction (relayed, not this site's view).
Some posts focus on the gap between MSTRUSDT and HOODUSDT, arguing that within the same category of US equity USDT-margined perpetuals, MSTRUSDT up 0.16% and HOODUSDT down 6.16% shows money is picking names rather than buying the whole group (relayed, not this site's view). These are Square discussions, not verified conclusions.
Three things that are easy to miss
First, there is a time gap between fund inflows and price moves. Quarterly net inflows are a slow variable, while BTCUSDT rose only 0.47% and COINUSDT fell 3.1% this week; treating a quarterly figure as a weekly direction signal can misread the pace.
Second, US equity USDT-margined perpetuals have their own trading hours and gap behaviour. During US market closures these contracts still move, and prices after the open may be discontinuous with spot, so daily open and close values do not reliably describe the intraday path.
Third, funding rates and high leverage amplify short-term swings. BTCUSDT closed lower on three days and flat on one, while COINUSDT closed lower on four days; in this kind of back-and-forth tape, high-leverage positions have little room for error. Also, the best week is always a conclusion reached in hindsight: when BTCUSDT rose 23.61% in the week of 2026-08-17, nobody inside that week knew it would become one of the sample's strongest.
How the fee math works
The Binance contract default maker fee is 0.02% and the default taker fee is 0.05%. With a 20% rebate, the effective maker fee is 0.016% and the effective taker fee is 0.04%. These figures are fixed and unrelated to this week's moves; longs and shorts settle at the same tier.
Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo
Data as of 2026-10-02; source: Binance official API. Not investment advice.
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Binance is not available in your region. What follows is not a centralized exchange โ it is a different kind of product that you can use:
๐ Binance Web3
A self-custody wallet inside the Binance app; swaps route through on-chain DEX aggregation, not an exchange account
Bind via our link and wallet swap fees drop 30%. On-chain gas and slippage are not covered by the discount.
You must already be a verified Binance user to create a Binance Wallet (official FAQ Q13); wallet referrals and exchange referrals are two separate systems. Zero-fee pairs such as stablecoin swaps generate no rebatable fee.