Dollar Index Hits Highest Since May 2025: SPY Down 0.84% This Week, IWM Down 1.42%
The dollar index hit its highest since May 2025, pressuring risk assets. SPY fell 0.84% this week and IWM fell 1.42%, while BTCDOM rose 0.63%.
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The dollar index hit its highest since May 2025, and risk assets had a rough week. Among Binance USDT-margined equity perpetuals, SPYUSDT fell 0.84% this week, IWMUSDT fell 1.42%, and QQQUSDT fell 0.26%; over the same window, BTCDOMUSDT rose 0.63%. Four pairs under one macro narrative split into two directions, and that divergence matters more than any single pair's move. All daily data below can be checked line by line through Binance's official exchangeInfo and market endpoints.
How the four pairs actually traded this week
Daily closes from 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-01 are in the table below, with percentage changes copied directly from the interface.
| Date | BTCDOMUSDT Close | Change | SPYUSDT Close | Change | QQQUSDT Close | Change | IWMUSDT Close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | 5122.2 | -1.26% | 766.58 | -0.18% | 740.11 | -0.17% | 281.33 | -0.29% |
| 2026-09-25 | 5046.9 | -1.47% | 772.65 | 0.79% | 746.06 | 0.81% | 282.24 | 0.36% |
| 2026-09-26 | 5081.8 | 0.69% | 770.85 | -0.23% | 744.14 | -0.26% | 281.97 | -0.09% |
| 2026-09-27 | 5092.1 | 0.2% | 769.98 | -0.11% | 744.04 | -0.01% | 280.94 | -0.36% |
| 2026-09-28 | 5094 | 0.04% | 766.5 | -0.45% | 737.62 | -0.86% | 280.16 | -0.32% |
| 2026-09-29 | 5122.2 | 0.56% | 766.62 | 0.01% | 740.96 | 0.46% | 280.07 | -0.04% |
| 2026-09-30 | 5104.3 | -0.35% | 766.3 | -0.04% | 743.54 | 0.35% | 278.97 | -0.4% |
| 2026-10-01 | 5124.5 | 0.4% | 763.52 | -0.36% | 742.11 | -0.19% | 277.07 | -0.67% |
Three key days stand out. On 2026-09-25, BTCDOMUSDT closed at 5046.9, down 1.47%, its worst day of the week, while SPYUSDT closed at 772.65, up 0.79%, and QQQUSDT closed at 746.06, up 0.81%, a rare synchronized up day for the equity index pairs. On 2026-09-28, BTCDOMUSDT closed at 5094, up 0.04%, essentially flat, while SPYUSDT closed at 766.5, down 0.45%, and QQQUSDT closed at 737.62, down 0.86%, giving back part of the earlier gains. By 2026-10-01, only BTCDOMUSDT closed higher, at 5124.5, up 0.4%, while SPYUSDT closed at 763.52, down 0.36%, and IWMUSDT closed at 277.07, down 0.67%, with small caps falling harder than the broad index.
Across the week, IWMUSDT moved from 281.06 on 2026-09-28 to 277.07 on 2026-10-01, closing higher on only one of the eight sessions, a steady grind lower rather than a single-day drop. SPYUSDT's daily swings stayed between 0.79% and -0.45%, pressured but not breaking. QQQUSDT dropped 0.86% on 2026-09-28, then rose for two sessions before a small 0.19% pullback on the last day. BTCDOMUSDT fell for two days, rose for four, and closed higher again on the final day, moving opposite to the equity index pairs.
Where this week ranks in the historical sample
A single week's move can mislead without context. BTCDOMUSDT has 200 weekly samples, with 107 weeks stronger than this one; SPYUSDT has 26 weekly samples, with 20 stronger; QQQUSDT has 26 weekly samples, with 16 stronger; IWMUSDT has 17 weekly samples, with 12 stronger. None of the four ranks near the top of its own sample this week.
For BTCDOMUSDT, the gap is clear. The week of 2023-03-13 ran from 1440.2 to 1647.9, up 14.42%; 2025-04-07 ran from 4641.8 to 5191.1, up 11.83%; 2024-01-01 ran from 2034.3 to 2265.7, up 11.37%; 2025-03-03 ran from 3674.8 to 4049.2, up 10.19%. All far above this week's 0.63%, and all clear one-way moves.
SPYUSDT's sample is shorter but the contrast holds. The week of 2026-04-13 ran from 679.19 to 709.38, up 4.45%; 2026-04-06 ran from 658.3 to 679.19, up 3.17%; 2026-08-03 ran from 750.48 to 771.08, up 2.74%. This week's -0.84% sits in the weaker tier. For QQQUSDT, 2026-04-13 ran from 610.63 to 647.62, up 6.06%; 2026-05-04 ran from 674.17 to 710.06, up 5.32%; 2026-08-03 ran from 693.7 to 721.84, up 4.06%. For IWMUSDT, 2026-06-08 ran from 284.82 to 298.44, up 4.78%; 2026-08-03 ran from 291.23 to 301.85, up 3.65%. Put side by side, this week's -1.42% speaks for itself.
What popular posts on Square say about the dollar move
Popular posts on Square argue that the dollar index hitting its highest since May 2025 is a headwind for risk assets, especially for high-valuation, liquidity-sensitive growth names (relayed, not this site's view). Some posts group QQQUSDT and SPYUSDT together, arguing the broad index holds up better because of its weighting structure, while small caps fall more directly without that cushion, citing IWMUSDT's 1.42% drop this week (relayed, not this site's view).
Other posts point to BTCDOMUSDT's counter-trend gain, arguing it is driven by different factors than the equity index pairs and cannot be read through the same macro lens, with this week's 0.63% gain reflecting its own weighting shifts (relayed, not this site's view). Some warn that dollar strength pressures risk assets over several sessions through capital flows rather than in one day, so single-day moves mean little compared to weekly or longer windows (relayed, not this site's view).
These are Square discussions, not verified conclusions. The transmission chain between the dollar index and these contracts has lags and reversals, and treating one day's direction as the start of a trend carries real risk.
Three things easy to overlook
First, gaps and closing prices. The table uses daily closes, but contracts trade continuously, so opens and prior closes often differ slightly. BTCDOMUSDT opened at 5046.8 on 2026-09-26 versus a prior close of 5046.9; SPYUSDT opened at 766.53 on 2026-09-29 versus a prior close of 766.5. These gaps are nearly invisible on a daily chart but affect how you read a day's true strength.
Second, high leverage magnifies directional errors. All four are perpetual contracts, so correct calls are amplified and wrong ones equally so. IWMUSDT fell 1.42% this week; being on the wrong side means absorbing far more than that number suggests. Leverage does not change the underlying move, only the speed at which your account balance changes.
Third, funding rates and holding costs. Perpetuals have a funding mechanism where longs and shorts pay each other periodically, creating ongoing cost for extended holds. In a narrow range like this week, the underlying move is small but funding can quietly erode part of the position.
One more point: the best week is a conclusion in hindsight. The stronger weeks listed above, like BTCDOMUSDT's 14.42% in 2023-03-13 or 11.83% in 2025-04-07, were only known to be strong weeks afterward. On day one of any week, nobody knows how it will play out. Using historical samples as a basis for judging the future is itself a hindsight view.
How the fees work
Binance's default maker fee is 0.02% and default taker fee is 0.05%. With a 20% rebate, the effective maker fee is 0.016% and the effective taker fee is 0.04%.
These three numbers matter more to frequent traders than they appear. For takers, the gap between 0.05% and 0.04% is a per-trade cost that compounds with frequency. For makers, 0.02% to 0.016% looks small but adds up for market-making and limit-order strategies.
Fees are part of trading cost, not a source of return. If the direction is wrong, a lower fee does not change the loss.
Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo
Data as of 2026-10-01; source: Binance official API. Not investment advice.
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Binance is not available in your region. What follows is not a centralized exchange โ it is a different kind of product that you can use:
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Bind via our link and wallet swap fees drop 30%. On-chain gas and slippage are not covered by the discount.
You must already be a verified Binance user to create a Binance Wallet (official FAQ Q13); wallet referrals and exchange referrals are two separate systems. Zero-fee pairs such as stablecoin swaps generate no rebatable fee.