BTCDOM up 2.04% this week: 65 of 200 weeks were stronger
The odds of a Fed rate hike in October fell to 17%, yet only three of four Binance contracts rose this week.
Binance is not available in your region. What follows is not a centralized exchange โ it is a different kind of product that you can use:
๐ Binance Web3
A self-custody wallet inside the Binance app; swaps route through on-chain DEX aggregation, not an exchange account
Bind via our link and wallet swap fees drop 30%. On-chain gas and slippage are not covered by the discount.
You must already be a verified Binance user to create a Binance Wallet (official FAQ Q13); wallet referrals and exchange referrals are two separate systems. Zero-fee pairs such as stablecoin swaps generate no rebatable fee.
The odds of a Fed rate hike in October fell to 17%, which pushed talk of easier policy and risk assets back into the spotlight. On Binance this week, only BTCDOMUSDT, SPYUSDT and QQQUSDT finished higher, at 2.04%, 0.15% and 0.85%, while XAUUSDT fell 2.85%. Expectations and prices did not move together.
How the four contracts actually traded
| Date | BTCDOMUSDT | XAUUSDT | SPYUSDT | QQQUSDT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | 0.69% | -0.13% | -0.23% | -0.26% |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.2% | -0.53% | -0.11% | -0.01% |
| 2026-09-28 | 0.04% | -3.1% | -0.45% | -0.86% |
| 2026-09-29 | 0.56% | 1.36% | 0.01% | 0.46% |
| 2026-09-30 | -0.35% | -0.66% | -0.04% | 0.35% |
| 2026-10-01 | 1.42% | 0.6% | -0.1% | 0.11% |
| 2026-10-02 | 0.47% | -0.88% | 0.61% | 0.79% |
| 2026-10-03 | -0.09% | -0.14% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
Three days stand out. On 2026-09-28, XAUUSDT fell from 4264.78 to 4132.45, a drop of 3.1%, while BTCDOMUSDT moved from 5092.2 to 5094, up 0.04%. On 2026-10-01, BTCDOMUSDT rose from 5104.2 to 5176.5, up 1.42%. On 2026-10-02, the equity contracts caught up, with SPYUSDT up 0.61% and QQQUSDT up 0.79%.
Where this week sits in the sample
BTCDOMUSDT has 200 weekly observations, and 65 weeks were stronger than this one. Among them, the week starting 2023-03-13 rose 14.42%, the week starting 2025-04-07 rose 11.83%, and the week starting 2024-01-01 rose 11.37%. XAUUSDT has 43 weekly observations with 34 stronger weeks, SPYUSDT has 26 with 17 stronger, and QQQUSDT has 26 with 14 stronger. Sample lengths differ too much for a fair cross-comparison.
What popular posts say
Popular posts on the Square argue that a 17% October hike probability means easing expectations are building, which should favour risk assets and gold. That reading is reasonable in theory, but XAUUSDT was the weakest of the four contracts this week at -2.85%. The posts describe a direction of expectations, not a settled outcome, and they do not represent this site.
Three things worth saying plainly
Gaps matter more on equity index contracts, because Binance trades continuously while US markets do not. Leverage amplifies volatility rather than direction, and a 3.1% single-day drop is enough to force exits at high leverage. Funding fees are a recurring cost that compounds against a losing position. And the best week is always a conclusion reached in hindsight.
Fees
The default maker fee on Binance futures is 0.02% and the default taker fee is 0.05%. With a 20% rebate, the effective maker fee is 0.016% and the effective taker fee is 0.04%.
Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo
Data as of 2026-10-04; source: Binance official API. Not investment advice.
Related Articles
Binance is not available in your region. What follows is not a centralized exchange โ it is a different kind of product that you can use:
๐ Binance Web3
A self-custody wallet inside the Binance app; swaps route through on-chain DEX aggregation, not an exchange account
Bind via our link and wallet swap fees drop 30%. On-chain gas and slippage are not covered by the discount.
You must already be a verified Binance user to create a Binance Wallet (official FAQ Q13); wallet referrals and exchange referrals are two separate systems. Zero-fee pairs such as stablecoin swaps generate no rebatable fee.