Trump Rejects Hormuz Reopening: What Oil, Gas and Gold Did This Week
After Trump rejected the Hormuz reopening proposal, Middle East risk premium rose.
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Trump rejecting the proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is a headline that sounds like it should lift every safe-haven and energy market at once. The week ending 2026-09-28 on Binance commodity USDT-margined perpetuals tells a narrower story. CLUSDT closed the week at 0.82%, BZUSDT at 0.44%, NATGASUSDT at -0.22%, and XAUUSDT at -1.5%. Only the two crude contracts finished positive, while natural gas and gold slipped. For anyone trading these contracts, the useful question is not how loud the headline was, but what it actually left on the daily candles and where this week sits inside each contract's own history.
How the four contracts actually moved
The table below lists the daily open, close and change for CLUSDT, BZUSDT, NATGASUSDT and XAUUSDT from 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-28, copied directly from the Binance official endpoint.
| Date | CLUSDT open/close | CLUSDT change | BZUSDT open/close | BZUSDT change | NATGASUSDT open/close | NATGASUSDT change | XAUUSDT open/close | XAUUSDT change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 95.62 / 92.24 | -3.53% | 98.9 / 96.25 | -2.68% | 3.026 / 2.997 | -0.96% | 4376.99 / 4372.76 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-22 | 92.23 / 89.52 | -2.94% | 96.24 / 94.47 | -1.84% | 2.996 / 3.175 | 5.97% | 4372.76 / 4367.28 | -0.13% |
| 2026-09-23 | 89.51 / 92.12 | 2.92% | 94.48 / 97.87 | 3.59% | 3.174 / 3.17 | -0.13% | 4367.27 / 4292.3 | -1.72% |
| 2026-09-24 | 92.12 / 93.97 | 2.01% | 97.88 / 99.7 | 1.86% | 3.17 / 3.268 | 3.09% | 4292.3 / 4269.28 | -0.54% |
| 2026-09-25 | 93.98 / 92.66 | -1.4% | 99.7 / 97.65 | -2.06% | 3.267 / 3.237 | -0.92% | 4269.29 / 4292.88 | 0.55% |
| 2026-09-26 | 92.66 / 94.29 | 1.76% | 97.64 / 99.56 | 1.97% | 3.238 / 3.222 | -0.49% | 4292.88 / 4287.48 | -0.13% |
| 2026-09-27 | 94.29 / 93.24 | -1.11% | 99.56 / 98.47 | -1.09% | 3.222 / 3.121 | -3.13% | 4287.47 / 4264.79 | -0.53% |
| 2026-09-28 | 93.25 / 94.01 | 0.82% | 98.48 / 98.91 | 0.44% | 3.122 / 3.115 | -0.22% | 4264.78 / 4200.99 | -1.5% |
Three days stand out. On 2026-09-22, NATGASUSDT jumped from 2.996 to 3.175, a 5.97% move, the strongest single day among the four. On the same day CLUSDT fell from 92.23 to 89.52, -2.94%, and BZUSDT fell from 96.24 to 94.47, -1.84%. The hottest headline day sent crude and gas in opposite directions. On 2026-09-23, crude turned: CLUSDT rose from 89.51 to 92.12, 2.92%, and BZUSDT from 94.48 to 97.87, 3.59%, recovering the prior day's drop, while NATGASUSDT barely moved at -0.13%. On 2026-09-28, the split was clearest: CLUSDT closed at 94.01, 0.82%; BZUSDT at 98.91, 0.44%; NATGASUSDT at 3.115, -0.22%; and XAUUSDT fell from 4264.78 to 4200.99, -1.5%, the weakest of the four. The safe-haven gold narrative did not show up on that candle.
Where this week ranks in each sample
Placed against each contract's weekly sample, this week is not a strong one. CLUSDT has 27 weekly samples, with 12 weeks stronger than this one. BZUSDT has 27 samples, 11 stronger. NATGASUSDT has 27 samples, 13 stronger. XAUUSDT has 43 samples, 26 stronger. In other words, crude only edged positive, while gas and gold finished lower.
| Contract | This week | Weekly samples | Weeks stronger | Stronger weeks (open/close/change) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLUSDT | 0.82% | 27 | 12 | 2026-07-13: 73.6 / 83.85 / 13.93%; 2026-03-30: 99.88 / 113.77 / 13.91% |
| BZUSDT | 0.44% | 27 | 11 | 2026-07-13: 78.33 / 88.42 / 12.88%; 2026-04-20: 90.81 / 101.2 / 11.44% |
| NATGASUSDT | -0.22% | 27 | 13 | 2026-05-25: 3.008 / 3.339 / 11%; 2026-05-11: 2.914 / 3.182 / 9.2% |
| XAUUSDT | -1.5% | 43 | 26 | 2026-01-19: 4673.21 / 5022.15 / 7.47%; 2026-08-03: 4080.99 / 4337.4 / 6.28% |
For CLUSDT, 12 weeks were stronger, including 2026-07-13 at 13.93% and 2026-03-30 at 13.91%. For BZUSDT, the stronger weeks include 2026-07-13 at 12.88% and 2026-04-20 at 11.44%. For NATGASUSDT, 2026-05-25 at 11% and 2026-05-11 at 9.2%. For XAUUSDT, with a longer 43-week sample, 26 weeks were stronger, including 2026-01-19 at 7.47% and 2026-08-03 at 6.28%. Put side by side, this week's 0.82%, 0.44%, -0.22% and -1.5% are not in the same range as those stronger weeks.
What the Square's hot posts say
Hot posts on the Square argue that after Trump rejected the Hormuz reopening proposal, the Middle East risk premium will keep building, with crude and natural gas as the most direct beneficiaries and gold supported by safe-haven flows (paraphrased, not this site's view). Some posts treat the headline as a reason to go long crude, expecting supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz to keep a floor under prices.
Looking at the daily candles, that view only partly played out. Crude did finish positive, with CLUSDT at 0.82% and BZUSDT at 0.44%, but the gains were small and both fell on 2026-09-22. Natural gas posted the single strongest day among the four at 5.97%, yet ended the week at -0.22%, unable to hold the gain. Gold was the least cooperative, finishing at -1.5% for the week and -1.5% on 2026-09-28 alone. The direction in those posts is worth reading, but treating it as an established fact is risky.
Three things easy to miss
First, gaps and overnight risk are pronounced in geopolitical themes. From 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22, CLUSDT moved from 95.62 to 89.52, with back-to-back -3.53% and -2.94%. If a position was chased in at the peak of the headline, those two days were painful. Geopolitical news does not follow the chart's schedule, and prices can open a gap while you sleep.
Second, high leverage is amplified in this kind of split market. On a single day, 2026-09-22, the four contracts produced 5.97% and -2.94% in opposite directions. Getting the direction right but the contract wrong, or the reverse, can lead to completely different outcomes. High leverage does not spare you because your logic was sound.
Third, funding rates and holding costs are another hidden line. When a geopolitical theme is hot, longs and shorts squeeze each other on perpetuals, and funding rate direction and size shift with it, so holding overnight is not free. Many traders watch only the entry price and the current price, ignoring what settles each day.
One more honest point: this week's 0.82%, 0.44%, -0.22% and -1.5% are conclusions that only exist in hindsight. When the news broke, nobody knew how the week would close, and the 13.93%, 13.91% and 12.88% stronger weeks in the samples were just as unclear at the time. Treating a finished weekly candle as a template for the future is the most common misjudgment in this kind of theme.
What the fees come to
Binance's default maker fee is 0.02% and default taker fee is 0.05%. The rebate ratio is 20%, which puts the effective maker fee at 0.016% and the effective taker fee at 0.04%.
Read together: at the default tier a taker order costs 0.05%, and 0.04% after the rebate; a maker order costs 0.02%, and 0.016% after the rebate. Trading crude, gas and gold contracts with several round trips in a week, the taker portion adds up. Knowing the fee structure is more practical than replaying "if only I had held" afterward.
Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo
Data as of 2026-09-28; source: Binance official endpoint. Not investment advice.
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Binance is not available in your region. What follows is not a centralized exchange โ it is a different kind of product that you can use:
๐ Binance Web3
A self-custody wallet inside the Binance app; swaps route through on-chain DEX aggregation, not an exchange account
Bind via our link and wallet swap fees drop 30%. On-chain gas and slippage are not covered by the discount.
You must already be a verified Binance user to create a Binance Wallet (official FAQ Q13); wallet referrals and exchange referrals are two separate systems. Zero-fee pairs such as stablecoin swaps generate no rebatable fee.