COINUSDT Falls 4.79% This Week: 24 of 34 Weekly Samples Were Stronger
The CFTC submitted two event contract rule proposals to the White House, while COINUSDT, HOODUSDT and MSTRUSDT fell 4.79%, 4.78% and 4.4% this week.
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The Proposal Landed in Expectations, and Price Answered First
The CFTC submitted two event contract rule proposals to the White House, and the Square treated it as positive for prediction markets and crypto compliance names. Yet the weekly candles on Binance for three US-equity USDT-margined perpetual contracts closed weak: COINUSDT fell 4.79% this week, HOODUSDT fell 4.78%, and MSTRUSDT fell 4.4%. News is news, price is price, and in the same week they did not move the same way. For anyone trading these contracts, what matters is not the text of the proposal but which side of that weekly candle your position sits on.
Where Each Day Closed
All three contracts started weakening from the 2026-09-28 candle and only steadied by 2026-10-01.
| Date | COINUSDT open/close | Change | HOODUSDT open/close | Change | MSTRUSDT open/close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | 198.03 / 198.61 | 0.29% | 122.78 / 120.8 | -1.61% | 162.39 / 161.42 | -0.6% |
| 2026-09-25 | 198.62 / 195.26 | -1.69% | 120.81 / 119.06 | -1.45% | 161.41 / 159.19 | -1.38% |
| 2026-09-26 | 195.26 / 197.11 | 0.95% | 119.06 / 119.1 | 0.03% | 159.2 / 160.41 | 0.76% |
| 2026-09-27 | 197.09 / 195.99 | -0.56% | 119.1 / 118.94 | -0.13% | 160.41 / 160.93 | 0.32% |
| 2026-09-28 | 196 / 192.8 | -1.63% | 118.95 / 116.23 | -2.29% | 160.93 / 157.36 | -2.22% |
| 2026-09-29 | 192.81 / 190.46 | -1.22% | 116.23 / 117.56 | 1.14% | 157.37 / 155.93 | -0.92% |
| 2026-09-30 | 190.47 / 186.7 | -1.98% | 117.56 / 113.11 | -3.79% | 155.93 / 153.44 | -1.6% |
| 2026-10-01 | 186.69 / 186.62 | -0.04% | 113.09 / 113.27 | 0.16% | 153.43 / 153.85 | 0.27% |
Three days stand out. On 2026-09-30, the heaviest day of the week, COINUSDT fell from 190.47 to 186.7, down 1.98%; HOODUSDT fell from 117.56 to 113.11, down 3.79%; MSTRUSDT fell from 155.93 to 153.44, down 1.6%. All three moved down on the same day, in the same direction, by different amounts. On 2026-09-28, the starting point of the week, COINUSDT fell from 196 to 192.8, down 1.63%, HOODUSDT fell from 118.95 to 116.23, down 2.29%, and MSTRUSDT fell from 160.93 to 157.36, down 2.22%, setting the tone from the open. On 2026-10-01, the only day all three closed at or above their opens: COINUSDT went from 186.69 to 186.62, down 0.04%, HOODUSDT from 113.09 to 113.27, up 0.16%, and MSTRUSDT from 153.43 to 153.85, up 0.27%. These three candles are almost too small to read a direction from, but at least they stopped falling.
Where This Week Ranks in the Sample
COINUSDT has 34 weekly samples, and 24 weeks were stronger than this one, so a 4.79% decline sits on the weaker side. HOODUSDT has 35 weekly samples with 25 weeks stronger, this week down 4.78%. MSTRUSDT has 34 weekly samples with 23 weeks stronger, this week down 4.4%.
Looking at some of the COINUSDT weeks that beat this one: the week of 2026-04-13 ran from 165.71 to 201.21, up 21.42%; the week of 2026-08-17 ran from 149.28 to 188.36, up 26.18%; the week of 2026-06-29 ran from 149.07 to 174.48, up 17.05%; the week of 2026-09-14 ran from 171.97 to 195.42, up 13.64%. For HOODUSDT, the week of 2026-04-13 ran from 68.82 to 89.92, up 30.66%; the week of 2026-05-25 ran from 75.03 to 95.68, up 27.52%; the week of 2026-08-31 ran from 104.94 to 126.57, up 20.61%. For MSTRUSDT, the week of 2026-06-29 ran from 82.37 to 107.3, up 30.27%; the week of 2026-08-17 ran from 93.83 to 120.7, up 28.64%; the week of 2026-04-13 ran from 126.82 to 162.83, up 28.39%. Put together, this week's decline is not extreme within the sample, but it does fall on the side where most weeks were stronger.
What the Hot Square Posts Say
Hot posts on the Square argue that the CFTC submitting two event contract rule proposals to the White House is a positive step for prediction markets and crypto compliance names, and on that basis group COINUSDT, HOODUSDT and MSTRUSDT among the possible beneficiaries (paraphrased, not this site's view). The posts also note that this kind of rulemaking takes time, so short-term prices may not react immediately, and the value is more about adding a piece to a medium-term narrative. Some also point out that all three contracts are US-equity USDT-margined perpetuals, tied to US market hours, so liquidity is naturally thin on weekends and during US market closures, and news-driven moves can be amplified. These are only opinions from the Square, not established facts, and readers should weigh them themselves.
Three Honest Points
Gaps are unavoidable for all three contracts. They track US equity underlyings while the contracts keep trading when the US market is closed, so price moves first and the underlying catches up later, and the difference is the gap. The 2026-09-28 open that set this week's tone is exactly that rhythm.
High leverage is most easily punished in news-driven markets like this. A proposal is a proposal and price is price; all three weekly candles fell this week, and if you were on the wrong side with high leverage, the decline gets amplified. Leverage magnifies volatility, not judgment.
Funding fees also count as holding cost. Perpetual contracts have no expiry, and longs and shorts balance each other through funding, so the longer you hold, the more this cost accumulates. Many people watch only the entry price and the current price and forget this fee is paid or received every day in between.
The best weeks are conclusions in hindsight. The weeks of 2026-04-13, 2026-08-17 and 2026-06-29 that rose so much looked obvious only after the fact; nobody knew in advance. The same goes for this week's 4.79% decline, and standing on 2026-09-28, nobody could have known how this week would close.
How Fees Work
The default maker fee on Binance contracts is 0.02%, and the default taker fee is 0.05%. After a 20% rebate, the effective maker fee is 0.016% and the effective taker fee is 0.04%. All three US-equity USDT-margined perpetual contracts follow this tier, long or short.
Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo
Data as of 2026-10-01; source: Binance official endpoint. Not investment advice.
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Binance is not available in your region. What follows is not a centralized exchange โ it is a different kind of product that you can use:
๐ Binance Web3
A self-custody wallet inside the Binance app; swaps route through on-chain DEX aggregation, not an exchange account
Bind via our link and wallet swap fees drop 30%. On-chain gas and slippage are not covered by the discount.
You must already be a verified Binance user to create a Binance Wallet (official FAQ Q13); wallet referrals and exchange referrals are two separate systems. Zero-fee pairs such as stablecoin swaps generate no rebatable fee.