ETH Rose 0.54% This Week: 92 of 200 Weeks Were Stronger

A 0.54% week that only just makes the top half

ETHUSDT closed at 2701.78 USDT on 2026-10-02, up 0.54% from the week's open of 2687.36 USDT. Across a 200-week sample, 92 weeks were stronger, so this one ranks 93rd, only just inside the top half. For anyone watching perpetual futures positioning, the number itself matters less than how it was built: the largest single-day gain was 0.64%, the largest single-day loss was 0.4%, and price spent the week inside a narrow band. In that structure, sentiment is easily swayed by daily colors while the real risk sits elsewhere.

Seven daily candles: the gain was accumulated, not charged

Date	Open	Close	Change
2026-09-24	2683.41 USDT	2686.65 USDT	0.12%
2026-09-25	2686.65 USDT	2690.56 USDT	0.15%
2026-09-26	2690.56 USDT	2694.97 USDT	0.16%
2026-09-27	2694.97 USDT	2687.36 USDT	-0.28%
2026-09-28	2687.36 USDT	2687.55 USDT	0.01%
2026-09-29	2687.56 USDT	2676.94 USDT	-0.4%
2026-09-30	2676.94 USDT	2684.68 USDT	0.29%
2026-10-01	2684.68 USDT	2701.78 USDT	0.64%

Three days stand out. On 2026-09-26 price closed at 2694.97 USDT, up 0.16%, a modest move that set the reference level for the following sessions. On 2026-09-29 it fell 0.4% to 2676.94 USDT, the weakest day of the week and the only clear pullback. On 2026-10-01 it rose 0.64% to 2701.78 USDT, the largest daily move of the week and the session that turned the weekly candle from roughly flat into a 0.54% gain. The rest of the week barely moved, with 2026-09-28 changing just 0.01%.

Against 200 weeks, this one only just makes the top half

Of the 200 weekly samples, 92 were stronger. A few comparisons make the gap obvious: the week starting 2022-12-19 rose 3%, 2023-01-09 rose 20.46%, 2024-11-04 rose 29.62%, 2025-05-05 rose 39.03%, and 2026-08-17 rose 31.32%. This week's 0.54% sits in a completely different order of magnitude. Even the closest references, 2026-09-14 at 6.8% and 2026-09-21 at 1.65%, were higher.

What popular posts on the Square say

Popular posts on the Square argue that after ETH rose 70.9% in the third quarter, long-side sentiment in the futures market is still intact, and many read the recent narrow range as consolidation before the next move, discussing when to add long positions (relayed, not the view of this site). Other posts note that ETHUSDT, a crypto USDT-margined perpetual listed since 2019-11-27, has enough depth to absorb larger position adjustments, so short-term flows move faster than in spot (relayed, not the view of this site).

Three things that are easy to miss

First, narrow ranges mislead. On 2026-09-28 price moved 0.01% and on 2026-09-30 it moved 0.29%, which looks calm, but 2026-09-29 at -0.4% and 2026-10-01 at 0.64% show volatility was compressed, not gone. Second, high leverage feels safer in a low-volatility week, and that is exactly when positions get enlarged. Third, funding rates and the label of a best week are both backward-looking: the 39.03% week of 2025-05-05 and the 31.32% week of 2026-08-17 were only identified after the fact.

Fees, stated plainly

The default maker fee on Binance futures is 0.02% and the default taker fee is 0.05%. After a 20% rebate, the effective maker fee is 0.016% and the effective taker fee is 0.04%. These numbers matter more to frequent traders than a 0.54% weekly move, because fees are paid on every trade while gains are not.

Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo

Data as of 2026-10-02; source: Binance official API. Not investment advice.

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Correction (2026-10-06): an earlier version described this week's position in the weekly sample the wrong way round; it has been corrected using rank = number of stronger weeks + 1.