ETH down 0.89% this week: only 90 weeks were weaker

Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow last week, and ETHUSDT closed the week down 0.89%, ranking 110th out of 200 weekly samples. Three things line up: money is leaving, price is falling, but the drop is not extreme. For contract traders, the point of this week is not direction but whether fees still fit inside your cost line after volatility narrowed.

Five down days, two up days

Date	open	close	Change
2026-10-05	2725.71 USDT	2708.69 USDT	-0.62%
2026-10-06	2708.69 USDT	2696.45 USDT	-0.45%
2026-10-07	2696.45 USDT	2572.88 USDT	-4.58%
2026-10-08	2572.87 USDT	2474.01 USDT	-3.84%
2026-10-09	2474.02 USDT	2486.41 USDT	0.5%
2026-10-10	2486.4 USDT	2504.91 USDT	0.74%
2026-10-11	2504.9 USDT	2535.66 USDT	1.23%
2026-10-12	2535.66 USDT	2513.21 USDT	-0.89%

Only two days really mattered. On October 7, price fell from 2696.45 USDT to 2572.88 USDT, down 4.58%. On October 8, it fell from 2572.87 USDT to 2474.01 USDT, down 3.84%. Those two days pushed price from around 2700 down to 2474.01 USDT. Then October 9 to October 11 printed three green candles at 0.5%, 0.74%, and 1.23%, lifting price back to 2535.66 USDT. The last day slipped 0.89% to close at 2513.21 USDT. For the week, open was 2535.66 USDT and close was 2513.21 USDT, a drop of 0.89%. The pit dug by the first two red candles was only partly filled. The ETF net outflow lines up in time with the October 7 and October 8 red candles: money was reducing exposure and price followed. But the following three days moved up, so selling pressure did not last the whole week. ETHUSDT is a crypto USDT-margined perpetual contract listed on 2019-11-27, so the sample is long enough that a drop-then-recover week is not unusual.

109 weeks were stronger, ranking 110th

Putting this week into the 200-week sample, 109 weeks were stronger, 90 weeks were weaker, and this week ranks 110th, in the second half of the sample. It is not the worst bucket, but it is not in the first half either.

Take a few stronger weeks as reference. The week of 2025-05-05 rose from 1807.87 USDT to 2513.48 USDT, up 39.03%. The week of 2026-08-17 rose from 1875.21 USDT to 2462.58 USDT, up 31.32%. The week of 2024-11-04 rose from 2457.3 USDT to 3185.19 USDT, up 29.62%. The week of 2025-07-14 rose from 2970.37 USDT to 3755.67 USDT, up 26.44%. The week of 2024-05-20 rose from 3069.98 USDT to 3827.53 USDT, up 24.68%. All of them were stronger than this week, with gains ranging from 24.68% to 39.03%.

Some stronger weeks were down weeks. The week of 2023-03-20 went from 1779.98 USDT to 1772.63 USDT, down 0.41%. The week of 2024-01-15 went from 2474.3 USDT to 2457.02 USDT, down 0.7%. The week of 2024-04-15 went from 3153.16 USDT to 3145.73 USDT, down 0.24%. The week of 2025-04-14 went from 1596.93 USDT to 1586.56 USDT, down 0.65%. The week of 2025-05-12 went from 2513.48 USDT to 2496.98 USDT, down 0.66%. The week of 2025-05-26 went from 2550.03 USDT to 2537.89 USDT, down 0.48%. The week of 2026-01-05 went from 3143.33 USDT to 3122 USDT, down 0.68%. The week of 2026-02-16 went from 1965.48 USDT to 1957.01 USDT, down 0.43%. The week of 2026-03-02 went from 1938.58 USDT to 1935.97 USDT, down 0.13%. These are also stronger weeks, but they fell less than this week, not more. This week fell 0.89%, and all those declines were smaller than 0.89%, so they rank ahead of this week.

What popular posts say

Popular posts on the Square argue that the net outflow from Ethereum spot ETFs last week is a direct signal of pressure on the funding side, that ETH lacks incremental buying in the short term, and that price can fall again after a bounce (relayed, not the site's view). Other popular posts argue that net outflow alone does not mean price must keep falling, pointing to the three green candles from October 9 to October 11 as evidence that there is still support at lower levels, with the key being whether ETF flows turn to net inflow next week (relayed, not the site's view). Still other popular posts focus on contracts, arguing that in a drop-then-recover weekly structure, chasing shorts and chasing longs both get whipsawed, and position management matters more than direction (relayed, not the site's view).

Three honest points

First, gaps and wicks were typical this week. October 8 closed at 2474.01 USDT and October 9 opened at 2474.02 USDT, so there was almost no gap, but intraday swings were wide enough to knock out high-leverage positions first.

Second, leverage amplifies volatility, not direction. The week's range was concentrated on October 7 and October 8. The following three days rose 0.5%, 0.74%, and 1.23%, which together did not recover the first two days' decline, so high leverage can be repeatedly worn down in a range.

Third, funding fees are a hidden holding cost. The ETF net outflow is a spot-level signal, while on the contract side you also need to watch the direction and rate of funding fees. Being right on direction but paying an unfavorable rate over time still erodes returns.

How fees work out

The Binance contract default maker fee is 0.02%, and the default taker fee is 0.05%. With a 20% rebate, the effective maker fee after rebate is 0.016%, and the effective taker fee after rebate is 0.04%. This week price moved from 2535.66 USDT to 2513.21 USDT, a modest range, but fees are paid on every trade, so short-term traders especially should factor them into cost.

Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo

Data as of 2026-10-13; source: Binance official interface. Not investment advice.