Nikkei 225 up 2.5% at a three-month high, while EWJUSDT gained 0.53%

The Nikkei 225 rose 2.5% to a three-month high, a topic that drew 45 posts and 3,176 views on the Square. Over the same stretch, Binance EWJUSDT moved from 98.65 USDT to 99.17 USDT, a gain of 0.53%. The index climbed while the contract barely budged, and that gap is the part worth examining. EWJUSDT is a USDT-margined perpetual tracking US equities, listed on 2026-03-19, and it has accumulated 30 weekly candles so far.

How the week actually traded

Date	open	close	change
2026-09-28	98.2 USDT	96.74 USDT	-1.49%
2026-09-29	96.75 USDT	96.8 USDT	0.05%
2026-09-30	96.76 USDT	97.95 USDT	1.23%
2026-10-01	97.96 USDT	97.48 USDT	-0.49%
2026-10-02	97.5 USDT	98.76 USDT	1.29%
2026-10-03	98.78 USDT	98.81 USDT	0.03%
2026-10-04	98.8 USDT	98.69 USDT	-0.11%
2026-10-05	98.65 USDT	99.17 USDT	0.53%

Two sessions did the heavy lifting. On 09-30 price moved from 96.76 USDT to 97.95 USDT, up 1.23%; on 10-02 it moved from 97.5 USDT to 98.76 USDT, up 1.29%. After those two green candles, price stalled between 98 and 99, with 10-03 up 0.03% and 10-04 down 0.11% — moves too small to signal direction. The 09-28 candle fell 1.49%, the deepest drop of the week, yet none of the following seven sessions closed below 96.74 USDT, which suggests buyers stepped in on the dip. For the full week, 98.65 USDT open and 99.17 USDT close, a net 0.53% that roughly erased the earlier decline. The Nikkei 225 rose 2.5% to a three-month high while the contract shifted half a point — the two are clearly not moving in step.

Where this week ranks among 30 weekly candles

Since listing, EWJUSDT has printed 30 weekly candles, and 13 of them were stronger than this one. In other words, 0.53% ranks 14th of 30, just inside the top half and well behind the strongest weeks.

Stronger week starting	open	close	change
2026-03-30	81.05 USDT	85.11 USDT	5.01%
2026-04-06	85.11 USDT	87.3 USDT	2.57%
2026-04-13	87.29 USDT	89.53 USDT	2.57%
2026-04-27	87.13 USDT	88.06 USDT	1.07%
2026-05-04	87.97 USDT	92.59 USDT	5.25%
2026-05-18	90.15 USDT	95.13 USDT	5.52%
2026-06-08	89.59 USDT	93.94 USDT	4.86%
2026-06-29	93.62 USDT	95.01 USDT	1.48%
2026-07-20	90.39 USDT	92.69 USDT	2.54%
2026-08-03	92.78 USDT	96.97 USDT	4.52%
2026-08-10	96.96 USDT	98.54 USDT	1.63%
2026-08-31	94.96 USDT	98.77 USDT	4.01%
2026-09-21	96.69 USDT	98.22 USDT	1.58%

The strongest of those 13 was the week of 2026-05-18, opening at 90.15 USDT and closing at 95.13 USDT, up 5.52%; the week of 2026-05-04 went from 87.97 USDT to 92.59 USDT, up 5.25%; the week of 2026-03-30 went from 81.05 USDT to 85.11 USDT, up 5.01%. All three of the five-percent-plus weeks clustered between March and May, when price pushed from 81 toward 95. By August and September the stronger weeks had narrowed to 4.52%, 4.01%, 1.63% and 1.58%. This week's 0.53% does not even reach the 1.07% of the week of 2026-04-27, let alone the two May weeks. The price level is higher, though — an open of 98.65 USDT sits in the upper part of the sample, and part of the slow pace comes from an already-elevated base.

What the trending Square posts say

Trending posts on the Square argue that the Nikkei 225 rising 2.5% to a three-month high signals improving sentiment toward Japanese equities, and that Binance EWJUSDT, which tracks Japanese equities, is worth watching along that line (relayed, not the view of this site). The argument links the index move directly to the contract, which is reasonable, but the posts do not provide EWJUSDT's own weekly data. Put the two side by side: the index up 2.5%, the contract up 0.53% this week, with a gap in between. The posts also note the three-month high, and the timing is worth recording — EWJUSDT listed on 2026-03-19, so the stretch in which the index hit a three-month high covers most of its life as a contract. The posts are worth reading, but they leave one question open: after an index high, does the contract follow or has it already priced the move in? Only the data answers that.

Three things to keep straight

First, an index up 2.5% and a contract up 0.53% are not the same thing. The Nikkei 225 is a spot index; EWJUSDT is a perpetual future. Between them sit basis, funding, and mismatched trading hours. The index moves during Tokyo hours, the contract trades around the clock on Binance, and the same headline reaches each at a different speed. Assuming the contract will mirror an index high is an assumption that needs testing.

Second, high leverage magnifies that mismatch. This week's largest single-day gain was 1.29% and the largest single-day loss was 1.49%. Neither looks dramatic, but under high leverage those swings are enough to move a position sharply within a day. On days like 10-03 up 0.03% and 10-04 down 0.11%, holders still pay funding. A flat market is not a free market — the cost just changes form.

Third, funding is unavoidable in a perpetual. When price chops between 98 and 99, the rate flips between longs and shorts, and holding overnight means facing that expense. Most people watch the price and miss the fee quietly eating into unrealized gains. As for calling any week the best one, that is always a conclusion reached in hindsight — the 5.52% week of 2026-05-18 was only obvious afterward, and nobody could have picked it in advance. With 13 of 30 weekly candles stronger than this one, this week's performance is unremarkable in context.

How the fees work out

Binance's default maker fee on futures is 0.02% and the default taker fee is 0.05%. With a 20% rebate, the effective maker fee is 0.016% and the effective taker fee is 0.04%. Across this week's eight sessions, narrow days like 10-03 up 0.03% and 10-04 down 0.11% mean repeated round trips can let fee costs eat visibly into the spread.

Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo Data as of 2026-10-05; source: Binance official API. Not investment advice.

Correction (2026-10-06): an earlier version described this week's position in the weekly sample the wrong way round; it has been corrected using rank = number of stronger weeks + 1.

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