ADP Adds Only 90K: SPYUSDT -0.19%, QQQUSDT Ends Green
US September ADP came in at 90K, feeding rate-cut expectations.
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US September ADP came in at 90K, which pushed rate-cut expectations further forward, yet the US equity index contracts on Binance did not move together. In the same week, SPYUSDT fell 0.19%, QQQUSDT rose 0.07%, IWMUSDT fell 0.64% and UVXYUSDT rose 0.35%. Four symbols, four directions, which tells you the market did not trade this macro print on one script.
How the four symbols diverged
| Date | SPYUSDT | QQQUSDT | IWMUSDT | UVXYUSDT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | -0.79% | -0.97% | -1.82% | 2.34% |
| 2026-09-24 | -0.18% | -0.17% | -0.29% | 1.87% |
| 2026-09-25 | 0.79% | 0.81% | 0.36% | -3.11% |
| 2026-09-26 | -0.23% | -0.26% | -0.09% | -0.42% |
| 2026-09-27 | -0.11% | -0.01% | -0.36% | 0.95% |
| 2026-09-28 | -0.45% | -0.86% | -0.32% | 1% |
| 2026-09-29 | 0.01% | 0.46% | -0.04% | -1.23% |
| 2026-09-30 | 0.25% | 0.49% | -0.29% | 0.59% |
Three days are enough. On 2026-09-23 all four moved in the same direction: SPYUSDT fell 0.79%, QQQUSDT fell 0.97%, IWMUSDT fell 1.82% and UVXYUSDT rose 2.34%, the classic risk-off pairing. On 2026-09-25 the four flipped together the other way: SPYUSDT rose 0.79%, QQQUSDT rose 0.81%, IWMUSDT rose 0.36% and UVXYUSDT fell 3.11%. On 2026-09-30 SPYUSDT closed at 768.51 USDT, QQQUSDT at 744.56 USDT, IWMUSDT at 279.26 USDT and UVXYUSDT at 17 USDT, with both the indices and the volatility contract slightly positive.
This week is ordinary inside the sample
SPYUSDT has 26 weekly samples, and 19 weeks were stronger than this one. Among them, the week of 2026-04-13 ran from 679.19 USDT to 709.38 USDT, up 4.45%; the week of 2026-04-06 ran from 658.3 USDT to 679.19 USDT, up 3.17%; the week of 2026-08-03 ran from 750.48 USDT to 771.08 USDT, up 2.74%.
QQQUSDT also has 26 weekly samples, with 15 weeks stronger. The week of 2026-04-13 ran from 610.63 USDT to 647.62 USDT, up 6.06%; the week of 2026-05-04 ran from 674.17 USDT to 710.06 USDT, up 5.32%; the week of 2026-08-03 ran from 693.7 USDT to 721.84 USDT, up 4.06%.
IWMUSDT listed later, so it has 17 weekly samples with 8 weeks stronger. The week of 2026-06-08 ran from 284.82 USDT to 298.44 USDT, up 4.78%; the week of 2026-08-03 ran from 291.23 USDT to 301.85 USDT, up 3.65%; the week of 2026-06-22 ran from 293.48 USDT to 298.29 USDT, up 1.64%.
UVXYUSDT also has 17 weekly samples, with only 3 weeks stronger. The week of 2026-09-07 ran from 17.29 USDT to 19.08 USDT, up 10.35%; the week of 2026-07-13 ran from 23.59 USDT to 25.39 USDT, up 7.63%; the week of 2026-06-22 ran from 26.26 USDT to 26.71 USDT, up 1.71%.
Three things easy to overlook
First, ADP is an employment print, but contract prices trade the expectation gap, not the number itself. After 90K came out, none of the four symbols made a large same-direction move, which suggests the weak-employment outcome was already priced.
Second, high leverage turns a week without a big trend into a big swing in the account. The weekly moves were -0.19%, 0.07%, -0.64% and 0.35%, all modest on paper, but leverage changes what the same price move does to equity.
Third, funding is a hidden holding cost. Intraday direction flipped repeatedly this week, so both sides had positions caught on the wrong foot, and holding overnight means paying or receiving funding. A "best week" is always a conclusion reached in hindsight.
Fees
The Binance contract default maker fee is 0.02% and the default taker fee is 0.05%. The rebate ratio is 20%, which puts the effective maker fee at 0.016% and the effective taker fee at 0.04%.
Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo
Data as of 2026-10-01; source: Binance official API. Not investment advice.
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Binance is not available in your region. What follows is not a centralized exchange โ it is a different kind of product that you can use:
๐ Binance Web3
A self-custody wallet inside the Binance app; swaps route through on-chain DEX aggregation, not an exchange account
Bind via our link and wallet swap fees drop 30%. On-chain gas and slippage are not covered by the discount.
You must already be a verified Binance user to create a Binance Wallet (official FAQ Q13); wallet referrals and exchange referrals are two separate systems. Zero-fee pairs such as stablecoin swaps generate no rebatable fee.