Mortgage Rates at 7.49%: SPYUSDT Up 0.52%, TBTUSDT Up 1.69% in the Same Week
In the week US mortgage rates hit 7.49%, Binance SPYUSDT rose 0.52%, QQQUSDT rose 0.36%, TMFUSDT fell 3.17% and TBTUSDT rose 1.69%, splitting the four contracts
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In the week US mortgage rates rose to 7.49%, the four Binance equity contracts did not move together: SPYUSDT gained 0.52% for the week, QQQUSDT gained 0.36%, TMFUSDT fell 3.17%, and TBTUSDT gained 1.69%. Two directions from one rate headline means money was not simply leaving risk assets, it was being re-split between equity and bond exposure. For anyone watching these contracts, the interesting part is not who fell, but who still closed green under the same news.
How the four lines actually traded
The daily bars are below, with only the key sessions called out.
| Date | SPYUSDT open/close | SPYUSDT change | QQQUSDT open/close | QQQUSDT change | TMFUSDT open/close | TMFUSDT change | TBTUSDT open/close | TBTUSDT change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 766.62 / 766.3 | -0.04% | 740.96 / 743.54 | 0.35% | 26.28 / 25.69 | -2.25% | 41.95 / 42.52 | 1.36% |
| 2026-10-01 | 766.3 / 765.57 | -0.1% | 743.51 / 744.32 | 0.11% | 25.7 / 25.79 | 0.35% | 42.5 / 42.32 | -0.42% |
| 2026-10-02 | 765.57 / 770.23 | 0.61% | 744.3 / 750.19 | 0.79% | 25.83 / 25.7 | -0.5% | 42.32 / 42.53 | 0.5% |
| 2026-10-03 | 770.3 / 771.54 | 0.16% | 750.19 / 751.56 | 0.18% | 25.72 / 25.93 | 0.82% | 42.52 / 42.51 | -0.02% |
| 2026-10-04 | 771.54 / 771.13 | -0.05% | 751.55 / 752.19 | 0.09% | 25.93 / 25.91 | -0.08% | 42.51 / 42.48 | -0.07% |
| 2026-10-05 | 771.14 / 775.25 | 0.53% | 752.19 / 756.61 | 0.59% | 25.9 / 25.23 | -2.59% | 42.49 / 42.95 | 1.08% |
| 2026-10-06 | 775.26 / 780.27 | 0.65% | 756.61 / 760.3 | 0.49% | 25.24 / 25.35 | 0.44% | 42.93 / 42.86 | -0.16% |
| 2026-10-07 | 780.26 / 775.13 | -0.66% | 760.29 / 754.9 | -0.71% | 25.35 / 25.08 | -1.07% | 42.88 / 43.21 | 0.77% |
SPYUSDT and QQQUSDT moved almost in step: two green sessions on 10-05 and 10-06 took SPYUSDT from 771.14 to 780.27 and QQQUSDT from 752.19 to 760.3, then both gave some back on 10-07, with SPYUSDT closing at 775.13, down 0.66%, and QQQUSDT at 754.9, down 0.71%. TMFUSDT took the other path, dropping 2.59% on 10-05 from 25.9 to 25.23 and another 1.07% on 10-07 to 25.08, down 3.17% for the week. TBTUSDT went the opposite way, up 1.08% on 10-05 and 0.77% on 10-07 to 43.21, up 1.69% for the week. Same rate story, opposite answers from the long-duration leveraged side and the short-duration side.
Where this week sits in each weekly sample
SPYUSDT has a 27-week sample, 14 weeks were stronger than this one, and this week ranks 15th, in the back half of the sample. Among the stronger weeks, 2026-04-06 gained 3.17%, 2026-04-13 gained 4.45%, 2026-05-04 gained 2.15% and 2026-08-03 gained 2.74%. Next to those numbers, this week's 0.52% is modest.
QQQUSDT also has a 27-week sample, 15 weeks were stronger, and this week ranks 16th, also in the back half. Its stronger weeks include 2026-04-13 at 6.06%, 2026-05-04 at 5.32%, 2026-08-03 at 4.06% and 2026-09-21 at 2.73%. This week's 0.36% looks even smaller beside them.
TMFUSDT has an 11-week sample, 6 weeks were stronger, and this week ranks 7th, in the back half. Its stronger weeks include 2026-08-24 at 2.92%, 2026-09-14 at 2.84% and 2026-08-03 at 2.24%. TBTUSDT also has an 11-week sample, 4 weeks were stronger, and this week ranks 5th, in the front half. Its stronger weeks include 2026-09-21 at 5.69%, 2026-09-07 at 4.05% and 2026-09-28 at 3.51%.
What the trending posts on Square say
Trending posts on Square argue that mortgage rates at 7.49% pressure both home sales and overall risk appetite, since monthly payments get heavier and household cash gets tighter, which shows up first in equity valuations (relayed, not this site's view). Those posts also say money tends to shift toward short duration or short-duration exposure in such moments, which is why equity and bond contracts can move in opposite directions in the same week (relayed, not this site's view). Some posts add that a rate headline does not finish playing out on the day it lands, but over the following sessions (relayed, not this site's view).
Checking that against the daily bars, the direction lines up: SPYUSDT and QQQUSDT both slipped on 10-07, TMFUSDT fell 3.17% for the week and TBTUSDT rose 1.69%, clearly two camps. The magnitude does not line up: if the rate news were that heavy, SPYUSDT and QQQUSDT should not have closed the week green. Posts give the logic, the tape gives the result, and the two do not always match.
Three things easy to misread
Gaps. In the table, SPYUSDT opened 10-03 at 770.3 while 10-02 closed at 770.23, and opened 10-05 at 771.14 while 10-04 closed at 771.13. Small gaps like these are common on equity contracts because the underlying has its own trading hours while the contract runs on its own clock. Chaining open to the prior close can produce a path that never existed on the tape.
Leverage. TMFUSDT and TBTUSDT both carry leveraged bond exposure, and on 10-05 TMFUSDT fell 2.59% while TBTUSDT rose 1.08%, opposite directions with meaningful size. High leverage amplifies that split, so being on the wrong side in one week costs far more than on a plain equity contract. With these products, knowing which side you are on matters more than guessing where rates go.
Funding. Perpetual contracts have no expiry and use funding to pull price back toward the underlying. With these four lines moving in different directions this week, longs and shorts are not paying the same funding. Anyone holding overnight sees more than the price change, there is a settlement every day.
The best week is a conclusion you reach looking back. The 6.06% for QQQUSDT in the week of 2026-04-13 and the 5.69% for TBTUSDT in the week of 2026-09-21 were only labelled after the fact. On the Monday of those weeks, nobody knew they would become the strongest bars in the sample.
What the fees look like on these four lines
The default Binance futures maker fee is 0.02% and the default taker fee is 0.05%. After a 20% rebate, the effective maker fee is 0.016% and the effective taker fee is 0.04%. Trading all four lines back and forth, the taker side costs more than twice the maker side, and the gap widens with frequency.
Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo Data as of 2026-10-07; source: Binance official API. Not investment advice.
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Binance is not available in your region. What follows is not a centralized exchange โ it is a different kind of product that you can use:
๐ Binance Web3
A self-custody wallet inside the Binance app; swaps route through on-chain DEX aggregation, not an exchange account
Bind via our link and wallet swap fees drop 30%. On-chain gas and slippage are not covered by the discount.
You must already be a verified Binance user to create a Binance Wallet (official FAQ Q13); wallet referrals and exchange referrals are two separate systems. Zero-fee pairs such as stablecoin swaps generate no rebatable fee.