TBT Up 4.86% This Week: No Stronger Week in a 9-Week Sample
In the week the US 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.40%, Binance TBTUSDT gained 4.86% with no stronger week in its 9-week sample, while TMFUSDT fell 9.26%.
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In the week the US 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.40%, the two most direct long-duration bond contracts on Binance moved in opposite directions: TBTUSDT gained 4.86% for the week, with no stronger week in its 9-week sample, while TMFUSDT fell 9.26%, with 8 of 9 weeks stronger. Over the same week SPYUSDT rose only 0.72% and UVXYUSDT fell 4.23%.
What the week left on the tape
TBTUSDT opened at 38.46 USDT on 2026-09-23 and closed at 39.74 USDT, a move of 3.33%, the largest single-day move of the week. On 2026-09-24 it opened at 39.74 USDT and closed at 40.4 USDT, up 1.66%; on 2026-09-25 it opened at 40.41 USDT and closed at 40.85 USDT, up 1.09%. Three sessions lifted the weekly line from 38.86 USDT to 40.75 USDT.
| Date | Open | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 38.81 USDT | 38.86 USDT | 0.13% |
| 2026-09-21 | 38.86 USDT | 38.56 USDT | -0.77% |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.61 USDT | 38.51 USDT | -0.26% |
| 2026-09-23 | 38.46 USDT | 39.74 USDT | 3.33% |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.74 USDT | 40.4 USDT | 1.66% |
| 2026-09-25 | 40.41 USDT | 40.85 USDT | 1.09% |
| 2026-09-26 | 40.81 USDT | 40.81 USDT | 0% |
| 2026-09-27 | 40.8 USDT | 40.75 USDT | -0.12% |
TMFUSDT ran the other way. On 2026-09-23 it opened at 29.94 USDT and closed at 28.58 USDT, down 4.54%; on 2026-09-24 it opened at 28.58 USDT and closed at 27.52 USDT, down 3.71%; on 2026-09-25 it opened at 27.53 USDT and closed at 27.23 USDT, down 1.09%. Those three sessions pulled the weekly line from 30.03 USDT to 27.25 USDT.
| Date | Open | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 29.95 USDT | 30.02 USDT | 0.23% |
| 2026-09-21 | 30.03 USDT | 30.34 USDT | 1.03% |
| 2026-09-22 | 30.34 USDT | 29.94 USDT | -1.32% |
| 2026-09-23 | 29.94 USDT | 28.58 USDT | -4.54% |
| 2026-09-24 | 28.58 USDT | 27.52 USDT | -3.71% |
| 2026-09-25 | 27.53 USDT | 27.23 USDT | -1.09% |
| 2026-09-26 | 27.23 USDT | 27.25 USDT | 0.07% |
| 2026-09-27 | 27.25 USDT | 27.25 USDT | 0% |
Both contracts are US equity USDT-margined perpetuals listed on 2026-07-27, so they share a starting point, yet the two paths split completely this week.
Where this week sits in the sample
TBTUSDT has a 9-week sample and 0 stronger weeks. Since listing on 2026-07-27, the 4.86% gain is the strongest of those 9 weeks. The sample is short, and so is the reach of that statement: it says nothing stronger appeared in this window, nothing more.
TMFUSDT also has a 9-week sample, with 8 stronger weeks. Those 8 weeks: 2026-07-27 went from 32.93 USDT to 30.8 USDT, down 6.47%; 2026-08-03 from 30.79 USDT to 31.48 USDT, up 2.24%; 2026-08-10 from 31.43 USDT to 30.57 USDT, down 2.74%; 2026-08-17 from 30.57 USDT to 30.53 USDT, down 0.13%; 2026-08-24 from 30.53 USDT to 31.42 USDT, up 2.92%; 2026-08-31 from 31.38 USDT to 30.97 USDT, down 1.31%; 2026-09-07 from 30.97 USDT to 29.18 USDT, down 5.78%; 2026-09-14 from 29.19 USDT to 30.02 USDT, up 2.84%. This week's 9.26% decline is weaker than all 8.
UVXYUSDT has a 16-week sample with 5 stronger weeks; this week it fell 4.23%. Among those 5, 2026-07-13 went from 23.59 USDT to 25.39 USDT, up 7.63%, and 2026-09-07 from 17.29 USDT to 19.08 USDT, up 10.35%. SPYUSDT has a 25-week sample with 10 stronger weeks; this week it rose 0.72%, and 2026-04-13 went from 679.19 USDT to 709.38 USDT, up 4.45%.
What the popular Square posts say
Popular posts on Square argue that after the US 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.40%, trades sensitive to long-end rates get repriced, long-duration bonds come under pressure, and demand for volatility and hedging rises (relayed, not the site's view).
On that reading, TBTUSDT and TMFUSDT are two sides of one coin, one taking the inverse exposure and one the direct exposure, and this week's tape showed both sides at once. The posts also note that macro-driven moves often concentrate in a few sessions, and this week's three-session runs on both contracts landed in the 2026-09-23 to 2026-09-25 window. On volatility, the posts expect hedging demand to rise, but UVXYUSDT fell 4.23% this week, which is worth noting separately.
Three plain facts
Gaps are normal here. TBTUSDT opened at 38.46 USDT on 2026-09-23 after closing at 38.51 USDT the prior day; TMFUSDT opened at 29.94 USDT after closing at 29.94 USDT. These perpetuals follow the underlying market's hours, so moves during the close show up at the open, and fills behave differently from continuously traded products.
High leverage magnifies those gaps. The direction looks clear, but the rhythm is uneven: TBTUSDT had three up sessions and also -0.77% on 2026-09-21 and -0.26% on 2026-09-22, while TMFUSDT had three down sessions and 1.03% on 2026-09-21. With size, the counter-moves alone can push you against your own read.
Funding and hindsight belong together. TBTUSDT's 4.86% is the strongest of 9 weeks only when viewed from 2026-09-27; on 2026-09-21 nobody knew how the next three sessions would go. TMFUSDT's 9.26% decline, weaker than 8 of 9 weeks, is likewise a ranking known only afterward. Perpetuals also carry funding that credits or deducts continuously, and the longer the hold, the more it matters.
On fees
The Binance contract default maker fee is 0.02% and the default taker fee is 0.05%. The rebate ratio is 20%, leaving an effective maker fee of 0.016% and an effective taker fee of 0.04%. Running opposite contracts like TBTUSDT and TMFUSDT means paying on both sides, and the more often you trade, the larger the fee share of the result.
Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo
Data as of 2026-09-27; source: Binance official API. Not investment advice.
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Binance is not available in your region. What follows is not a centralized exchange โ it is a different kind of product that you can use:
๐ Binance Web3
A self-custody wallet inside the Binance app; swaps route through on-chain DEX aggregation, not an exchange account
Bind via our link and wallet swap fees drop 30%. On-chain gas and slippage are not covered by the discount.
You must already be a verified Binance user to create a Binance Wallet (official FAQ Q13); wallet referrals and exchange referrals are two separate systems. Zero-fee pairs such as stablecoin swaps generate no rebatable fee.