Nonfarm Payrolls +29K: XAUUSDT Falls 2.37%, QQQUSDT Gains 1.1%
US September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29K and unemployment hit 4.2%.
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The data landed, and gold still closed lower
US September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29K and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, which pushed rate-cut expectations higher, yet Binance XAUUSDT closed the week at 4163.78 USDT, down 2.37%. Over the same stretch QQQUSDT gained 1.1% and SPYUSDT gained 0.2%. Put those three numbers side by side and the market clearly did not follow a straight line from weak data to buying gold. For contract traders, what matters more is where this week ranks in each sample and how much fees take out.
How price actually moved during the week
Start with the XAUUSDT daily candles, taken from the Binance official API.
| Date | open | close | change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | 4269.29 USDT | 4292.88 USDT | 0.55% |
| 2026-09-26 | 4292.88 USDT | 4287.48 USDT | -0.13% |
| 2026-09-27 | 4287.47 USDT | 4264.79 USDT | -0.53% |
| 2026-09-28 | 4264.78 USDT | 4132.45 USDT | -3.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | 4132.46 USDT | 4188.65 USDT | 1.36% |
| 2026-09-30 | 4188.65 USDT | 4161.11 USDT | -0.66% |
| 2026-10-01 | 4161.03 USDT | 4185.98 USDT | 0.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | 4185.98 USDT | 4163.78 USDT | -0.53% |
The real turn came on 2026-09-28, when price fell from 4264.78 USDT to 4132.45 USDT, a drop of 3.1% that erased the earlier gains in one candle. On 2026-09-29 it rebounded to 4188.65 USDT, up 1.36%, which looked like repair, but on 2026-09-30 it was back at 4161.11 USDT, down 0.66%, and the bounce did not carry. On 2026-10-01 it closed at 4185.98 USDT, up 0.6%, and on 2026-10-02 it closed at 4163.78 USDT, down 0.53%, so the last two days moved sideways. For the week, from the 2026-09-28 open of 4264.78 USDT to the latest close of 4163.78 USDT, XAUUSDT fell 2.37%. On the same 2026-10-02 session QQQUSDT went from 744.3 USDT to 752.26 USDT, up 1.07%, and SPYUSDT went from 765.57 USDT to 771.5 USDT, up 0.77%, so risk assets rose that day while gold closed lower.
Where this week ranks in the sample
XAUUSDT has 43 weekly samples, and 33 weeks were stronger than this one, so this week sits on the weaker side. Pull a few of the stronger weeks for comparison and the gap is obvious: the week of 2026-01-19 ran from 4673.21 USDT to 5022.15 USDT, up 7.47%; the week of 2026-08-03 ran from 4080.99 USDT to 4337.4 USDT, up 6.28%; the week of 2026-08-17 ran from 4375.17 USDT to 4628.17 USDT, up 5.78%; and the week of 2026-02-02 ran from 4769.1 USDT to 5028.31 USDT, up 5.44%. All of those were stronger than this week's -2.37%.
QQQUSDT has 26 weekly samples with 13 weeks stronger than this one, so this week's 1.1% gain lands mid-sample. Among the stronger weeks, 2026-04-13 ran from 610.63 USDT to 647.62 USDT, up 6.06%; 2026-05-04 ran from 674.17 USDT to 710.06 USDT, up 5.32%; and 2026-08-03 ran from 693.7 USDT to 721.84 USDT, up 4.06%. SPYUSDT has 26 samples with 16 weeks stronger, and this week gained 0.2%; among the stronger weeks 2026-04-13 gained 4.45% and 2026-04-06 gained 3.17%. UVXYUSDT has 17 samples with 3 weeks stronger, and this week gained 1.06%; among the stronger weeks 2026-09-07 gained 10.35% and 2026-07-13 gained 7.63%.
What the hot posts on Square say
Hot posts on Square argue that payrolls rising only 29K and unemployment reaching 4.2% will strengthen rate-cut expectations, a thread that favors gold, US equities and safe-haven assets (relayed, not the view of this site).
Set that against the data above and a gap appears: the rate-cut logic did show up in QQQUSDT and SPYUSDT, which both closed higher on 2026-10-02, QQQUSDT up 1.07% and SPYUSDT up 0.77%; but XAUUSDT closed down 0.53% that same day and fell 2.37% for the week, so it did not follow that thread. The hot post offers a directional judgment, not a settled fact, and whether the direction is right depends on how the weekly candles develop, not on one data release.
Three things that are easy to miss
First, gaps and weekend discontinuities are real. XAUUSDT opened 2026-09-27 at 4287.47 USDT while its 2026-09-26 close was 4287.48 USDT, so the two values do not match exactly; the 2026-09-28 open of 4264.78 USDT and the prior close of 4264.79 USDT differ in the same small way. These differences look tiny on a daily chart but become real profit-and-loss gaps in a contract position.
Second, high leverage turns a weekly move into a completely different outcome. XAUUSDT fell 2.37% this week, with a 3.1% single-day drop on 2026-09-28 and a 1.36% single-day gain on 2026-09-29 in between, so the heavier the position, the easier it is to be forced out before the bounce, and even a correct direction may not survive to the end.
Third, funding and fees are costs that occur every day regardless of direction. If the direction is right, fees still accrue with holding time; if the direction is wrong, fees add another layer on top of the loss. As for the idea that the best week is a conclusion in hindsight, numbers like the 7.47% week of 2026-01-19 and the 6.28% week of 2026-08-03 were only labeled after they finished, and nobody could have used them as a plan beforehand.
How fee costs work out
The Binance contract default maker fee is 0.02% and the default taker fee is 0.05%. With a 20% rebate ratio, the effective maker fee after rebate is 0.016% and the effective taker fee after rebate is 0.04%. These three numbers are fixed and unrelated to price direction, and short-term traders especially need to fold them into the break-even point of every trade.
Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo
Data as of 2026-10-02; source: Binance official API. Not investment advice.
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Binance is not available in your region. What follows is not a centralized exchange โ it is a different kind of product that you can use:
๐ Binance Web3
A self-custody wallet inside the Binance app; swaps route through on-chain DEX aggregation, not an exchange account
Bind via our link and wallet swap fees drop 30%. On-chain gas and slippage are not covered by the discount.
You must already be a verified Binance user to create a Binance Wallet (official FAQ Q13); wallet referrals and exchange referrals are two separate systems. Zero-fee pairs such as stablecoin swaps generate no rebatable fee.