ETH Falls 7.93% This Week: Only 29 of 200 Weeks Were Weaker

ETHUSDT fell from 2725.71 USDT to 2509.55 USDT this week, a drop of 7.93%. That ranks 171st out of 200 weekly samples, placing it in the latter half of the sample. Against the backdrop of nine consecutive days of net outflows from Ethereum ETFs, capital withdrawal pressure showed up directly in price action: October 7 fell 4.58% and October 8 fell another 3.84%, wiping out the prior week's gains in two sessions. For anyone trading ETHUSDT perpetuals on Binance, the key this week is not guessing the bottom but seeing how fund flows and price structure interact.

Daily Candles: The Drop Was Concentrated in Two Sessions

Date	Open	Close	Change
2026-10-04	2686.01 USDT	2725.71 USDT	1.48%
2026-10-05	2725.71 USDT	2708.69 USDT	-0.62%
2026-10-06	2708.69 USDT	2696.45 USDT	-0.45%
2026-10-07	2696.45 USDT	2572.88 USDT	-4.58%
2026-10-08	2572.87 USDT	2474.01 USDT	-3.84%
2026-10-09	2474.02 USDT	2486.41 USDT	0.5%
2026-10-10	2486.4 USDT	2504.91 USDT	0.74%
2026-10-11	2504.9 USDT	2509.55 USDT	0.19%

The two dates to watch are October 7 and October 8. On October 7, price opened at 2696.45 USDT and closed at 2572.88 USDT, down 4.58%. On October 8, it opened at 2572.87 USDT and closed at 2474.01 USDT, down another 3.84%. Together, those two sessions took price from 2696.45 USDT to 2474.01 USDT. October 9 through October 11 posted three straight gains of 0.5%, 0.74%, and 0.19%, lifting the close from 2486.41 USDT back to 2509.55 USDT, but failing to reclaim the October 8 open. The October 4 candle gained 1.48% and closed at 2725.71 USDT, which was both the week's starting point and its highest close. The structure was sideways, then a sharp drop, then a weak bounce. The ETF outflow news kept circulating through these days, and the withdrawal pressure did not disappear during the bounce; gains shrank each day, with October 11 adding just 0.19% to close at 2509.55 USDT, still below the October 7 open of 2696.45 USDT.

In the 200-Week Sample: Only 29 Weeks Were Weaker

The ETHUSDT weekly sample contains 200 weeks. 170 weeks were stronger than this one, giving this week a rank of 171st, in the latter half of the sample. In other words, only 29 of the past 200 weeks were weaker.

Compare a few stronger weeks from the fact pack: the week of 2022-12-12 fell from 1262.43 USDT to 1182.45 USDT, a drop of 6.34%; the week of 2023-02-06 fell from 1628.98 USDT to 1514.49 USDT, down 7.03%; the week of 2023-06-05 fell from 1888.54 USDT to 1751.8 USDT, down 7.24%; the week of 2024-07-22 fell from 3534.3 USDT to 3268.03 USDT, down 7.53%; the week of 2025-09-22 fell from 4443 USDT to 4139.55 USDT, down 6.83%; the week of 2026-06-22 fell from 1706.3 USDT to 1571.1 USDT, down 7.92%. All of these declines were smaller than this week's 7.93%, which is why they count as stronger weeks. This week's 7.93% drop is larger than every one listed above.

On the upside, stronger weeks include 2023-01-09 up 20.46%, 2024-05-20 up 24.68%, 2025-05-05 up 39.03%, 2025-07-14 up 26.44%, 2025-08-04 up 21.57%, and 2026-08-17 up 31.32%. Those gains are far larger than this week's decline, but they are up weeks and not directly comparable to a down week. The real comparison is among down weeks: this week's 7.93% drop ranks 171st out of 200, in the latter half of the sample, meaning it is a back-of-the-pack down week but not the most extreme in the sample.

What Popular Square Posts Say

Popular posts on Square argue that nine consecutive days of net outflows from Ethereum ETFs were the main driver of ETH's weakness this week, with withdrawal pressure weighing on price (relayed, not the site's view). Some posts note that continuous ETF outflows suggest some institutional money is reducing exposure, and that this reduction may not be one-off until flows reverse. Others point out that the October 7 and October 8 candles, down 4.58% and 3.84%, broke the short-term bullish structure, and that the following three gains of 0.5%, 0.74%, and 0.19% were a weak bounce rather than a trend reversal. A few posts caution that ETF flow data is reported with a lag, so by the time nine consecutive outflow days are visible, price may have already fallen, making both chasing shorts and buying dips risky. These are just Square discussions and not a basis for any action.

Three Honest Points

First, gaps and sharp drops tend to cluster in a few sessions. This week's 7.93% decline came mainly from October 7's 4.58% and October 8's 3.84%, while other days moved within 1.48%. If you only watch daily closes, you can easily miss that these two days decided the weekly result.

Second, high leverage gets amplified in sharp drops. On October 7, price opened at 2696.45 USDT and closed at 2572.88 USDT, a range wide enough to trigger liquidations in high-leverage positions. Perpetuals also carry funding fees, so holding overnight has a cost, and the higher the leverage, the smaller the margin for error when the direction is wrong.

Third, funding fees reflect real-time long-short positioning, not a prediction tool. The last three days gained 0.5%, 0.74%, and 0.19%; if funding turned positive, longs were paying shorts, but that does not mean price must keep rising.

Fourth, the "best week" is a conclusion in hindsight. The week of 2025-05-05 gained 39.03% and the week of 2026-08-17 gained 31.32%; those numbers look great now, but nobody inside those weeks knew how they would end. This week's 171st rank is also a post-hoc statistic that no one could know in advance.

Fees: Default Tier and Effective Rates After Rebate

Binance's default maker fee is 0.02% and default taker fee is 0.05%. The rebate ratio is 20%, making the effective maker fee 0.016% and the effective taker fee 0.04%. These rates apply to USDT-margined perpetuals like ETHUSDT; actual charges are subject to Binance's official API and account page.

Source: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo

Data as of 2026-10-11; source: Binance official API. Not investment advice.

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Correction (2026-10-12): an earlier version said 30 of 200 weeks were weaker. Per the figures in the article (200 weekly samples, this week ranked 171st), the correct number is 29; the headline, subheading and text have been corrected.